The hottest policy combination aims at steady grow

2022-10-02
  • Detail

The policy combination fist aims at stable growth. If the data in May is not good, or cut interest rates again

the policy combination fist aims at stable growth. If the data in May is not good, or cut interest rates again

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: the policy combination fist aims at stable growth. Monetary policy is expected to continue to work. The economic data in April showed that the current economy is still downward, and the recovery of domestic demand is still slow. Analysts believe that the policy will play a combined punch to promote the mobilization of all kinds of funds, and the monetary policy will continue to be loose by reducing the deposit reserve ratio

the policy mix is aimed at stable growth, and the monetary policy is expected to continue to work.

the economic data in April showed that the current economy is still in the downward trend, and the recovery of domestic demand is still slow. Analysts believe that the policy will play a "combined punch" with a push frequency of 32kHz, which meets the requirements of CLK clock to move all kinds of funds into the market, and the monetary policy will continue to be loose by reducing the deposit reserve ratio. If the data in May worsens further, the possibility of the central bank lowering interest rates cannot be ruled out

the economy continued to bottom in April

the year-on-year growth rate of exports in April fell to 4.9% for customers, and the growth rate of imports fell to 0.3%, almost zero. The industrial growth rate plummeted to single digits: in April, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year, the lowest since the test item: tensile strength in May 2009. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 14.1% year-on-year, the lowest since November 2006. Fixed asset investment in September increased by 20.2% year-on-year, also lower than expected, of which the growth rate of real estate investment fell the most

corporate profits fell. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the main business income and total profit of state-owned enterprises fell. Analysts estimated that the return on net assets of rubber components used by enterprises to prevent the magnitude 8 earthquake in Hong Kong Zhuhai Macao Bridge was lower than that in 2009. On the one hand, the decline in profits reduces the loan qualification of enterprises and affects the willingness of banks to lend. On the other hand, it also affects the business and investment activities of enterprises and reduces the credit demand of enterprises

non credit financing is seriously insufficient. Under the condition that the new credit in April was lower than expected, the non credit financing also increased significantly in April. Among them, the stock financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 94.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and the bond financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 46.1 billion yuan less

in addition, in April, foreign direct investment (FDI) was weak, the scale of capital inflow decreased, the share of foreign exchange increased negatively again, and the expectation of RMB depreciation strengthened. Affected by the European debt crisis, the market risk aversion increased, resulting in a significant weakening of foreign capital inflows. Before this year, China's Liquidity Expansion mainly came from foreign capital inflows, but recently, the scale of foreign capital inflows has decreased significantly, which is a test of whether the central bank can ensure sufficient market liquidity

monetary policy will continue to work

Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council recently inspected Hubei and studied and analyzed the current economic situation with the heads of six provinces, pointing out that steady growth should be placed in a more important position. Analysts believe that a new round of stimulus policies is pending, of which monetary policy will continue to work

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said that in the past decade, the money supply has been mainly composed of credit growth and foreign exchange. Credit growth continues to slow down and the increment of foreign exchange has decreased significantly. Market liquidity needs to be supplemented by policy adjustments to achieve a reasonable level. Since last year, the balance of central bills has also decreased significantly, from 4.8 trillion yuan in the peak period to 1.7 trillion yuan at the end of April. Among them, the medium and long-term varieties with more than one year are about 1.2 trillion yuan, and the number of central bank tickets due each month in the future will be significantly reduced than in the past. In the second half of the year, the funds due on the open market were only 358billion yuan, compared with 1.1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. In this case, it is imperative to further reduce the deposit reserve ratio. As long as credit is still limited in the future and the increment of foreign exchange holdings is further reduced under the condition of increasingly balanced trade and investment, the deposit reserve ratio will continue to decline in a trend

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI