The strength of the hottest glass spot can hardly

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It is hard to say that the strength of glass spot has boosted the future market. Although the price of glass futures has fallen all the way since the Spring Festival in order to meet the needs of all experiments to be carried out normally, the price of glass spot has increased significantly after the price coordination meeting in East China and central China held in late February and the price coordination meeting in the North held on March 5. The inventory in Central China dropped significantly. Although the inventory in North China rebounded, the overall inventory decreased. By the end of February, the inventory of the original film enterprises nationwide was 28.55 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 330000 boxes compared with the middle of February

similarly, the trend of coated glass and laminated glass of downstream deep-processing products is good. In addition, after the regulation of the new "five national regulations", the transaction of wood plastics in second-hand houses has increased sharply instead of traditional wood, which has stimulated the short-term rebound of the glass market

however, in the long run, the overall glass production capacity is surplus, and there are many contradictions within the market, so the future price is bound to fluctuate

first of all, the data show that the national float glass output in 2012 was 714million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.25% compared with 738million weight boxes in 2011. Up to now, the total number of production lines in China has been 287, 218 lines are in production, the kiln shutdown rate is 23.69%, 26 lines have stopped production, accounting for 9.06%, 42 lines have been cold repaired and 3 lines have been drained. In addition, there are 47 completed but not put into operation, involving a capacity of 219million weight boxes, equivalent to a potential capacity of about 1.032 billion weight boxes, which will far exceed the level of 2011 in the next five years. Such a serious overcapacity will undoubtedly restrain prices

secondly, the glass spot market is complex and has multiple contradictions

for example, the elasticity of supply and demand of glass is different. Once the glass production line is ignited and put into operation, there will be no major problems. The enterprise will not consider stopping production and cold repair, because the ceasefire will cause great damage to the furnace, which leads to the lack of elasticity of glass supply. In terms of demand, 75% of flat glass is used for real estate infrastructure, which has obvious seasonal factors of "golden nine silver ten", and the demand fluctuates significantly

for another example, the production area and consumption area of glass are different. At present, the flat glass production areas are mainly concentrated in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong, of which the original production of Hebei accounts for about 20%, while the main consumption areas are in Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong and other coastal high-rise intensive provinces. Moreover, there are obvious price differences among regions for glass products, which to a large extent also causes the glass trade to be extremely active

the above problems in the spot market have led to the complicated time, safety and reliability of the long short game of glass futures. The analysis and judgment of the participants in the futures market on glass are also clearly differentiated. From the initial long short wandering of some investors to the current relatively stable long short camps, the rotation of this game will continue to be deduced in the glass futures market, and the trend of glass futures prices will also be repeated

it should be pointed out that as a new listed variety, glass has to go through a growth process. The reason why it has become a star in the futures market soon after its listing is due to its own contradictions and differences. In the later stage, it will mature in contradictions and play games in contradictions

at present, the impact of real estate regulation policies on real house prices and demand is not clear. If house prices are curbed, it is expected that glass will continue to suffer weak shocks. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

Zhonghua glass () Department

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI