Discussion on the analysis of the hottest steel fu

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Preliminary exploration of steel futures analysis ideas

introduction: the financial storm in October 2008, all major industries and economies around the world have been deeply affected, and China's steel industry is the first to bear the brunt of this storm. The output of China's steel industry has exceeded 5trillion tons, accounting for about 40% of the global steel market, but the major enterprises in the whole steel industry are going hand in hand

the financial storm in October 2008 affected all major industries and economies around the world, and China's steel industry was the first to bear the brunt of this storm. The output of China's steel industry has exceeded 5trillion tons, accounting for about 40% of the global steel market. However, many major enterprises in the whole steel industry are advancing side by side, and the industry concentration is far from enough compared with developed countries in Europe and the United States, especially industrial chain competition, iron ore purchase negotiation Haiyunfei's weakness is more obvious at three levels, and there are signs of corporate profits shifting to the upstream industry in 2008. At the same time, the downstream industry real estate, automobile, home appliance, shipbuilding is expected to further shrink in steel consumption under the expectation of the economic recession in 2009. Therefore, the risks of the steel industry after a few years of rapid expansion of production capacity and substantial growth of profits, high risks have been put in front of major steel enterprises in the development of SABIC PP 514m12 material based on a technology that does not contain phthalates and has no odor

the futures market is a big place for hedging risks. Its risk aversion and hedging ability have been fully played by COFCO in the futures market in the past year. However, the turnover of China's futures market has reached 71trillion in 2008 and 100trillion in 2009, which is not a dream a few years ago, There is no doubt that the long axis of the sample coincides with the stretching direction through the fixture centerline. After the listing of steel futures, it is enough to provide sufficient liquidity for steel enterprises to avoid price risk, and it is estimated that the listing of steel futures will greatly increase the trading volume of the futures market and bring more liquidity to the futures market

with sufficient liquidity, steel companies have found the best place to hedge corporate risks, but in the past, copper companies have also effectively participated in hedging business in the futures market, but the final result is that copper hedging companies led by Jinrui futures have repeatedly lost money, shorting losses when rising, long losses when falling, and even now Jinrui futures has been long and short, It seems that COFCO has been lost in price fluctuations. Of course, we also see that COFCO has won a great victory in the agricultural products (13.68, -0.13, -0.94%, right) futures market, successfully avoided the risk of price fluctuations, and effectively prevented the sharp decline of profits in the sharp rise and fall of enterprises. In fact, the key to comparing the difference between the two is that COFCO is not only a spot expert but also a futures expert. Its analysis and judgment of agricultural futures have reached a high level, and its operation has reached a master level. In particular, COFCO funds' operation in the futures market is more admirable recently. Maybe they are the first mature master level institutions in China's futures market in more than a decade, And while COFCO is growing, the domestic agricultural market has more pricing power

the formation of the domestic steel futures market has two core missions: first, to provide an effective place for steel enterprises to hedge and avoid price risks; second, to provide a powerful tool for China to compete for the pricing power of steel. Undoubtedly, to achieve this goal, there must be such a stable hedging market as COFCO in the agricultural products market, and such a group company should not only have a strong force in the spot market, but also in the futures field: 1. Professional analysis skills: high accuracy analysis level; 2. Professional operation skills: a complete and skilled master level of operation, able to flexibly formulate strategies that are most conducive to the enterprise according to the situation, and able to stably execute and win in many strategic games. As an analyst who has been involved in the futures industry for five years, today, on the eve of the imminent listing of steel futures, this article is written to provide some ideas for the analysis of the steel market and make a modest contribution to the great development of the steel futures market in the future

the formation of futures market is actually the continuation of the spot market and the product of the development of market economy after the advanced stage. But compared with the spot system, the long short conversion is faster, the use of funds is more advanced, and the credit system is more perfect. Therefore, first of all, we should regard futures and spot as a whole, get rid of dualism from philosophy, and change into systematic observation and high thinking. In fact, it has been made clear that the primary problem of futures analysis is philosophical thinking. Only correct philosophical thinking can make high-quality research reports. Everyone has everyone's world outlook, and each structure has its own corporate culture, so philosophy is really difficult to distinguish which institution is good and which institution is bad, but at least we can see where the wrong philosophy is, and the wrong philosophy system will have big problems sooner or later, so when judging the level of analysts, the first thing is the height of philosophical thinking. So what kind of philosophical thinking can better survive, expand and develop in the futures market? I think the integration of the essence of system science, complexity science and grand balance theory can be considered, and the essence of Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism in China's traditional thought, especially the thought of Tao Te Ching, can also be used for reference. However, if we go deep into it, we will find that all these are talking about one thing: the essence of life. In fact, if the steel market is regarded as a life, then the philosophical thinking we study is based on the essence of life. Only by recognizing the essence, can we not get lost in the fluctuation of price, and can we successfully find a balance and grasp the rhythm of life. Philosophy is always primary. Zhongrui finance he Zanhui

if there is only philosophy, then everything seems empty, and our futures market is a classic example of everything starting from reality. If anyone wants to leave reality and live in his own dream, then the market will give you a hard eye at the first time and wake you up by bleeding

the reality and focus of the analysis lies in the grasp of the industrial chain, and it is necessary to observe the industrial chain comprehensively, find out the influencing factors in the industrial chain in time, especially the important core factors, and be able to grasp them at the first time when the key hot spots shift, effectively handle the relationship between the old and the new, and live in the present instead of living in the past or dreaming in the future

but before analyzing the industrial chain, there is another key point, that is, the macro-economy, because the development of industry can only be better if the whole macro-economy is positive. In particular, steel futures are related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and are closely linked to the macro-economy. In terms of macroeconomic analysis, I would like to briefly talk about my personal feelings since I made the research and analysis report. We can often see a lot of macro research reports, a lot of data, and a lot of data are made of data more than ten years ago. In fact, when analyzing data, we should pay more attention to the latest data in front of us. From the perspective of fractal, the farther the data is, the less reliable it is, The less referential it will be. It is only useful for occasional macro positioning. When analyzing these data, we will pay more attention to the latest data in front of us and find out the important starting and dominant data in a possible period of time. At the same time, when analyzing and processing data, we should try our best to find out the most important data under various data, such as GDP data, industrial production data, ISM data, consumer confidence index, real estate market data, purchasing manager data, import and export data, deposit and loan interest rate data and other core data are necessary, and it is best to classify them according to investment and consumption. Keep the focus and don't generalize. It's better to separate the data of China, the United States, Europe, Japan and emerging markets when analyzing, so that readers can think more clearly when reading and analyzing. Finally, in terms of macroeconomic analysis, it should be noted that since the financial industry accounts for an increasing proportion of all economies in the world, and the financial market is also a leading indicator of the entire economy and an important indicator to judge people's confidence, this part must be refined when analyzing. Many reports rarely include macroeconomic data and the latest data of the financial market, such as the stock market, interest rate market In fact, there is a philosophical problem with the data of foreign exchange market and commodity market. The research, actual operation and the first factors are not comprehensively considered, so these reports often lack framework data and are not valued by market participants. In fact, it is a pity. At the same time, macroeconomic and industrial refining data analysis should be separated and summarized separately, so that investors will be clear when reading the report

next, let's talk about the industrial chain. Because the real great development of the domestic futures market is only in 2006, 2007 and 2008, the research on the industrial chain of various futures company research centers is far from being compared with the spot market. The strength of researchers in this area is very inferior, which is also the help that many enterprises can get from futures companies when hedging, Of course, it changed a lot in 2008, especially after October 2008. It is estimated that many large futures companies have been able to provide a lot of help in this regard, which is the result of the development of the industry. The development of steel industry chain is very mature, but since steel futures have not been listed, although I have read a lot of materials in this regard, I still feel that my foundation is not deep enough. If there is any problem, please don't hit me too hard

the production cost of iron making process is mainly composed of raw materials (pellets, iron ore, etc.), auxiliary materials (limestone, silica, refractories, etc.), fuel and power (coke, pulverized coal, gas, oxygen, water, electricity, etc.), direct wages and benefits, manufacturing expenses, cost deduction (gas recovery, water slag recovery, coke screen material recovery, etc.)

according to the smelting principle of blast furnace, 1 ton of pig iron needs to be produced 0 ton of iron ore, 0 6 tons of coke and 0 4 tons of flux. The production cost of steel-making process is mainly composed of pig iron, scrap steel, alloy, electrode, refractory, auxiliary materials, electric energy, maintenance inspection and other expenses. At present, the main steel-making equipment in China is converter and electric furnace. Based on the different smelting principles, converter and electric furnace have certain differences in the proportion of main raw materials (pig iron and scrap). Converter process generally needs to be equipped with 10% scrap, while the use of scrap in electric furnace process accounts for 80%

taking 1.6 tons of iron ore and 0.45 tons of coke as the calculation basis for 1 ton of steel pig iron, and referring to the average iron steel ratio (0.96) and scrap unit consumption (0.15 tons) of China's steel industry in 2008 as the calculation basis, the following model is formed:

manufacturing cost per ton of pig iron = (1.6 × Iron ore +0.45 × Coke)/0.9

crude steel ton manufacturing cost = (0.96 × Pig iron +0.15 × Scrap)/0.82

the upstream of the steel industry is

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